Steve Schale -- Veteran Florida Man Politico

We need a clearer path - not just for 2026, but for 2032.

Of all the things keeping me up at night, the national demographic changes that will significantly change the national political map in 2032 are at the top.

Projections of a 12-15 seat shift from blue and “blue wall” states to a series of southern states that Trump won in 2024 has the potential to radically change the landscape. Not only will winning the White House require winning states like NC, GA, and AZ on a more regular basis, the pathway to majorities in Congress will require winning seats with GOP majorities drawing the Congressional lines.

Moreover, any chance we have of winning a majority in the US Senate will require us to do something we have not done since 2018: Win a Senate seat in a state that Joe Biden lost in 2020.

Expanding our coalition of a party isn’t just a nice talking point - it is a mathematical requirement for survival, and understanding how we navigate this challenge over the next few years is key to being prepared for it.

Over the last month, Unite the Country, working with Elizabeth Sena from GQR Research, has been surveying voters in twenty-one counties spread across the ten states that have been considered battleground states during all or some of the last four Presidential elections.

Most of the counties we chose are places that have gone a bit sideways for Democrats over the last four cycles, however, they are not monolithic. For example, the sample includes traditional base counties like Wayne County, Michigan and Cuyahoga County, Ohio, along with swing counties, like Bucks County, PA, and Hillsborough County, FL. We also included a number of fast-growing red counties that are only getting redder, places like Pinal County, AZ, and Cherokee County, GA.

The goal of this research is simple: to understand the state of the brand of both political parties across a wide sample of key counties, to learn what advantages Republicans might have in places that are trending more GOP, and to test a number of the theories out there for how Democrats move forward.

Over 25% of the counties we included were in states President Obama won twice but have gone for Trump three cycles in a row – with increased margins. Adding voices from FL, IA, and OH was important because we need to understand why these communities have trended away from us at warp speed if we hope to win back some elements of voters we have lost.

The new Democratic national coalition that gets us back above 50% will look different than the last one, but the math question remains the same: It is hard to see us winning without increasing our appeal beyond the voters who supported Harris in 2024.

This poll is not about quick fixes, nor is it designed to dump on Democrats, rather, the goal here is a sober assessment from the types of communities where we need to do better – not just to succeed in 2026 and 2028, but where winning will be imperative in the world that we will see in just six years.

TOPLINES:

While every attempt was made to balance the sample inside each of the counties, there is not a super easy baseline for this audience.

With that caveat, the 2024 Presidential vote for these twenty-one counties was:

Trump 49. Harris 49.

Current State of Play

Trump Approval: Approve: 46% Disapprove: 54%

JD Vance Approve: 45% Disapprove: 52%

Republican Party: Approve: 42% Disapprove: 55%

Democratic Party: Approve: 36% Disapprove: 61%

We also tested a number of Democratic office holders, representing the spectrum of the party. They are ordered by their net favorable (with full fav/unfav in parenthesis) Keep in mind, these are not national numbers - these are their ratings in a sample of key counties in key states.

Andy Beshear: +5 (23:18)

Mark Kelly: +3 (36:33)

Pete Buttigieg: +1 (42:41)

Bernie Sanders: -2 (46:48)

Gretchen Whitmer: -3 (34:37)

Alexandra Ocasio Cortez: -11 (39:50)

In terms of the 26 and 28 ballot, we looked at generic numbers, and find a battleground very similar to the electorate in 2024.

2026 Congressional: Democratic: 46% Republican: 45%

2028 Presidential: Democratic: 46% Republican: 45%

The Research

This research has a tremendous amount of data but boil it down to its essence: While there are issues that Democrats hold edges on, the GOP holds the issue advantage on the issues that are currently driving the vote – and perhaps more importantly, are seen more favorably among the character traits voters want to see in a party or candidate.

When we asked voters in both parties to rate which party they trusted on a variety of issues, and traits, Democrats led on a number of fronts including Protecting Social Security and Medicare (+15), Reducing the cost of health care (+9), and standing up against corporations (+11).

Republicans hold an edge on a broader set of issues, and namely, traits. The GOP holds an edge on “Will Improve the Economy” (+6), “represents my views on the immigration issue” (+10) and “will protect America from foreign enemies” (+19). Which boils down to one key point. While voters are more likely to use the word “extreme” to define Republicans (GOP +7), they give their party a 33-point edge when asked which party is “strong” and by 39-points, say Democrats are “weak” compared to the GOP.

Views of the Two Parties Individually

The above plays out when we ask all voters to respond to the same list of character traits and respond which five, they think of when looking at Republicans or Democrats.

For Democrats, four of the top five responses were negative. Top of the list was “woke” followed by “corrupt,” “weak,” and “out of touch.” The only positive in the top five “fight for democracy” was driven entirely by Democrats. It is important to note that these traits are not just being driven by partisan Republican responses. Among people of color under the age of 50 – a key demographic going forward for both parties, the words “woke,” “corrupt,” “weak,” “divisive,” and “elitist,” were all in the top six.

Before the Republicans reading this get too excited, the top five words chosen to describe the GOP: “corrupt,” “racist,” “bullies,” “conservative,” and “out of touch.”

We also asked voters they wanted to see in an ideal political party. The phrases that popped are not surprising: “common sense,” “competent,” “trustworthy,” “fighting for working families,” and “fighting for the middle class.”

Comparing the two parties, more than twice as many voters ranked “common sense” as a trait they would ascribe to the GOP than they did Democrats – and twice as many did the same with the word competent. In a world where most voters have few kind things to say about either party, the fact where voters ascribe these traits more to the GOP is a challenge. This also lines up with focus groups in Macomb County earlier in the year, where voters felt Democrats were more interested in social issues than the economic issues driving the voters’ concerns.

Carving Out a Pathway Forward

At their core, campaigns are math problems – and for Democrats, outside of some very blue pockets, our available coalition does not add up to 50%. Not only is this an issue to elect a President and win statewide elections, but it is increasingly an issue to win a majority in Congress.

And this is the problem that looks really ugly in 2032, when we will have to win more seats, in states we currently lose more often than win, in districts drawn by the GOP.

We cannot start working on this problem soon enough.

The goal of the poll was both to shine a light on the issues in key counties, and to illuminate a pathway forward.

To the second goal, we undertook a series of messaging exercises. Voters read a number of statements, both positive and negative about the party, and were asked to rate them. At the same time, they were asked to highlight which part of each statement helped drive their view, either positively, or negatively.

Voters moved back to Democrats on frames around embracing change - highlighting terms like “new generation of leaders,” and “fighting to revive the American dream,” while “taking on the corruption of Washington.” and economic populism, drawn to phrases like "working people pay the most taxes, and spend more on health care” and “we need to be the party of working Americans.”

Other issue ideas that were highlighted included: a party that fights for “providing tax cuts for working families instead of the wealthy,” and “believes that those who work with their hands deserve the same shot at the middle class as anyone else.”

The frame that did not work as well: contrasting GOP extremism or Democratic wokeism. Voters did not care because these issues are already baked into their minds. What they did highlight however was “The Democratic Party needs to become a moderate party again who can represent the common-sense majority of Americans who believe in the values of hard work, accountability and compassion.”

Putting this Research in Play

It is extremely hard to condense this survey into a five-page memo. The pollster’s deck is fifty pages, and the cross tabs themselves run more than 1,000 pages deep.

That being said the findings here are not complicated:

● The political mood in these battleground counties has not changed much, and the 2024 election, which was very close in these twenty-one counties is very close looking ahead to 2026.

● The GOP maintains an edge on economic and immigration issues, though Trump is seeing some negative impact on his economic messaging from the chaos of the trade wars.

● Fair or unfair, voters have decided that Democrats are woke, weak, and out of touch. And while they do not like Republicans much better, among the traits they do care about, the GOP has an edge.

● When we leaned into messaging about new leaders, fighting for working voters, leaning into common sense values, tax cuts for the middle class, and reviving the American Dream – moderate voters, younger voters and particularly, younger voters of color come racing back to our corner.

It is important to remember, this is not a poll of all voters. These are voters from a sample of counties that are key to Democratic success. By nature, the politics in these counties will be more competitive than the nation-at-large. At the same time, getting it right here is critical to any long-term success.

The issues we have highlighted, and the solutions for going forward are not a quick fix. In sixteen of the twenty-one counties we polled, the electorate has been moving away from Democrats for 12 years - and that will not turn around on a dime, nor are we likely to see real movement until we have a nominee.

But there are real lessons, particularly for candidates who want to run in competitive and lean red areas – and for statewide candidates looking to reduce GOP margins in lean GOP areas:

● Be the change agent - be strong in calling out the Washington BS, offer a different vision. To this end, I wish Democrats in Congress had offered a robust alternative vision for the Trump OBBB. There is a hunger for something other than just opposing Trump.

● Lean into American values. Do not be afraid to lean into the American Dream - offer a substantive vision that is rooted in common-sense ideas that will provide real impact to voters. Don’t just remind them whose side you are on - show them.

At the same time, there is a roadmap here for starting to invest in suburban and exurban communities where Congressional seats are going to be in play in a few years. The real upside of the poll - voters' views of Democrats after messaging moved most significantly in sunbelt states, including Florida, which is likely to have 3-4 new Congressional seats in 2032. There is an opportunity to support down ballot candidates in these areas seeing robust growth and build a real farm team looking forward to 2032.

Thank you for taking the time. I look forward to sharing more from this project.