In Defense of Midnight Sessions

Last week, count me as one of those strange people rivited by the late night debate over Senate Bill 6, the controversial teacher pay bill.

As the Palm Beach Post's Mike Bender chronicled, the late night session ran until 2:45 AM, surpassing the most recent late nighter, when then House Democratic Leader Dan Gelber kept the place open until 2:00 AM, forcing the GOP to read every bill on the agenda after they refused to consider a few Democratic alternatives. 

Much is always written about these late night sessions, how bad things always happen in the dark of night.  Not all of this is without merit.  One of the last sessions I worked, I clearly remember finding deep in a 275 page strike-all amendment to education bill a 2 year delay of the implementation of the class size amendment and managed to get a member to call attention to it.   Former Representative Joe Pickens of Palatka, a Republican member whom I had a ton of respect for, had simply missed it when they had re-written the bill in negotiations with Democrats and the Senate.   They corrected it and the process moved on.  Then of course, there are more famous examples, such as when Rep. Tom Feeney slipped in an amendment to sell the state's drivers license photos, not one of the House's finer moments.

But in spite of these events, many late night sessions are real moments of political theatre.    During typical day time sessions, so many things are essentially scripted, with the minority picking members to offer amendments, ask questions or debate, while the majority tries to speed up the process by limiting their floor debate.  You can look at a typical 10:00 AM House calendar and predict the outcome with the same certainty that Tom Watson would beat me in golf.

Though when the sun goes down and members get tired, the stress levels go up and so does the theater.   Majority members are more likely to go rogue and step out of line, and minority members tend to get more emotional.  In general, the debate is more colorful and memorable.  Such was the debate on Senate Bill 6, which was a real argument on the merits of a bill that brought out strong views on both sides.  Yes it took forever, and yes, it was worth every second.

I was blessed to spend nine years working in the Florida House, the last five sessions I spent inside the House Democratic Caucus office, three of which I was largely staffing the floor debate.    I remember the great debate the night that Tom Feeney passed out Senate President McKay's tax reform package in exchange for a seat in Congress.  That night, former Representative and all around great guy Matt Meadows returned to the floor from his hotel room with a 102 plus fever to give the Democrats enough votes to nearly kill the deal.  Or the night the House nearly killed the 1800 page school code re-write after hours of debate, at nearly 3:00 AM---or the aforementioned night, when Dan and his caucus kept the legislature in session, with the majority threatening to cut off access to the restroom in order to break the caucus (actually, I think then Speaker Marco Rubio was enjoying that nearly as much as Dan).  These were moments of real political drama and more importantly real debate.   And quite frankly, Florida would be better off with more of that.

So bring on a few more late night debates.  This political observer would welcome the must see late night TV. 

Crist as NPA: Can he win?

Despite Governor Crist's continual denying of his interest in running for the United States Senate as an independent, this is the rumor that will not die. 

If you wanted to believe he was on the verge of making  history and running as an independent candidate, you could certainly find compelling evidence in his recent record. He vetoed a key priority of his own party, recommended that federal prosecutors look into the state GOP, and renewed his support for the President's economic stimulus.  He's also embraced some views of the populist right, most notably, suing the federal government over the President's health care plan, and in many ways, his approach against Marco Rubio has been to paint him as a typical insider politician, a strategy he'd certainly employ as a third party candidate. 

While you could argue he was setting up a run up the middle, embracing the 'popularist' tenets of both sides of the current ideological debate, I am not convinced he is leaving the GOP primary, but I am convinced he is at least considering it.

Take this to the next level.  Can he win?

The answer:  It's tough, and may end up being the real reason why he doesn't do it.

Let's look at one electoral scenario to help make this point. 

Assuming the electorate on Election Day is 42% Democratic, 40% Republican and 18% Independent (Dems currently have a 7% advantage, so a 2 point advantage on election day is a fairly conservative estimate), even if Crist got 25% of the Republican and Democratic vote, and a whopping 60% of Independents (with Meek/Rubio splitting the rest), he would only get to 31%, several points short of a win number.  

In the more plausible, though still difficult scenario that he gets 50% of independents, he would need 31% of both Rs and Ds (assuming Meek/Rubio split the rest of the NPA) to get to a plurality of voters.  It is hard for me to see that many voters from either party bucking their party nominee.   Below 50% of Independents, and he has no chance whatsoever. 

That being said, if any politician could pull it off, Crist is positioned to make a run.   He starts with universal name ID and a hefty bank account.  He's also the Governor, meaning he can still earn press simply by turning on the fan and walking up to the podium.  No other potential third party candidate has had or will have those kinds of advantages---and if it were ever going to happen, the unpredictable 2010 electorate would give him a better shot than most years.  

I have another post coming looking more specifically at the Crist pros and cons scoreboard, but as it stands, the biggest downside is the electoral math.  On the flip side, he may have no other choice.  Winning the GOP primary looks harder each and every day, and his attacks on Rubio don't seem to be having much impact.  Certainly, today's news that Rubio raised more than $3 million in the first quarter of 2010 will give him even more reason to consider making the move.

Nonetheless, until the deadline for him to make the switch, this debate will continue to make for some fun Tallahassee and Washington chatter. 

Yes, Florida Is a Swing State

Earlier this week, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com wrote a piece asking the question, Is Florida Still a Swing State?  In his short piece, he offers a few thoughts suggesting that the state is slipping out of swing state status, concluding that he isn't so sure that Florida will retain its place as a (or the) central battleground in Presidential elections.

While I won't question Nate's credentials (if you aren't reading his stuff, you should be), on this one, I couldn't disagree more.
 
Whether or not Florida is a swing state seems to be central to any national political discussion since well, Florida became a swing state.  Sometimes, I find this conversation starting with my good friends whose most favored state has far fewer electoral votes, but sometimes it is based on the assumption that today's Florida is the same as your father's Florida.

At this point in 2008, most people believed Florida was solidly in the 'red' column, and not without some reason.  As late as April of 2008, polls showed McCain with a 15 point lead here.  I am pretty confident that I was one of the very few strategists who thought Obama would win Florida.   In fact, more than one close friend thought I was totally nuts when I signed up for the campaign. But I have tended to subscribe to the Bob Graham view of Florida: that the state's demographic changes would eventually catch up to and eventually change its politics. Not surprisingly, Graham was right.
 
The problem with most political assessments of Florida is most folks view it through one of two lenses: 2004 Kerry or recent Gubernatorials. Both are perfectly reasonable places to start, but neither tell the whole story. Now I will give you that there are two Floridas, a Presidential Florida and a non-Presidential Florida. But since Nate's piece is about Presidential elections, this piece will focus on that. Why Alex Sink can (and should) win is coming soon, don't worry!
 
So why is Florida still a swing state? First, look at its history. Since 1992, no Presidential election in Florida has had a margin of more than six points, and arguably, Democrats have won three of the last four ('96 Clinton, '00 Gore and '08 Obama). Take out '96 and '04, and over that same time, the largest margin was our 2.5% win in 2008 (Bush '92 was +2; Gore/Bush tied), despite Silver’s assertion that Florida was a “come along for the ride” state. 
 
But in many ways, that is just the beginning of the story. Since Florida's entry to swing state politics, the state has changed dramatically, and those shifts continue even in the face of a somewhat tough political environment. In 1992, the Democratic voter registration advantages were dependent on a large contingent of old-line "Dixiecrats," voters who haven't supported a Democrat at the Presidential level since Carter (the first time) or Johnson. Since that election, those voters have largely registered as GOP and settled in as the core of the Florida GOP electoral math.
 
However, if you look at the voter registration numbers now, the current Democratic advantage is roughly the same margin as 1992. How? The Dixiecrats have been gradually replaced by three populations: a growing (and diversifying) Hispanic population, a softening of GOP partisanship--most pronounced in the Tampa area, and an increased African American registration. Granted, the last is largely due to Obama, but the first two are demographic. These trends can be seen pretty much everywhere south of Jacksonville and the Panhandle. For example, of the 120 state house seats, some 80 of them have had a net registration gain toward the Democrats since the 2002 redistricting. These new Democrats are far more predictable than the Dixiecrats were for the Clinton campaign in 1992.
 
Moreover, some of the Democratic gains are taking place inside the most solid of all GOP bases: Cuban voters. Second and third generation Cuban Americans are much more independent, many are even proud Democrats; but more importantly, hard-line Cuban Republicans are being surpassed in terms of population by non-Cuban nationalizations and Puerto Rican (American citizen) migration. Non-Cuban Hispanics are growing much faster than Cubans, and with some naturalization ceremonies in Miami adding well over 10,000 new citizens at a time, the South Florida Hispanic population is only getting more diverse.  And as for Silver’s claim that Obama has an uphill climb among Jewish voters, let the history show that despite relentless and scurrilous rumor-mongering attacks against him, he carried the three South Florida counties home to the largest Jewish populations by margins higher than both Kerry and Gore.
 
In fact, by 2012, Hispanics could make up as much as 14-15% of the statewide electorate, and among the Hispanics fastest growing segments of the population.  In fact, the census projects that people of Hispanic origin have risen from roughly 17% of the total Florida population in 2000 to 21% in 2008.   Driven in part by this trend, the Democratic base is growing faster than the Republican one, hence the dramatic changes in registration over the last 10 years.
 
That being said, Silver argues that the President's struggles with health care and other issues are the primary driver as to why Florida could lose its swing state status, to which I would argue that Florida is in no different position than any other state. First, I believe that once the media does its job and starts reporting about what is in the health care reform package, instead of just the sport surrounding its passage, support will grow.  For example, an estimated 3.2 million Floridians will benefit by closing the “donut hole” in the Medicare prescription drug benefit, while another 2.5 million could receive tax credits to help pay for insurance. 

In fairness, come 2012 if the American people do not believe this President has taken steps to improve the economy and their personal futures, I will be the first to agree that this conversation is purely academic.   But I have a ton of confidence in this President and believe that the economy will be in a better place by the time that the next Presidential election rolls around. For those Republicans rolling your eyes, I would point you to President Reagan's standing at the same point in history, and if I am remembering it right, he did okay in 1984. But back to Florida '12, a healthier economy means the President will run well on the I-4 corridor, a place that has been particularly stung by the tough economy of the last three years.  When buoyed by the fact that the partisan numbers are, in fact, trending ever so slightly to the Democratic column, Obama will do just fine here in 2012.
 
At 28 or 29 electoral votes and a growing base, it is hard for me to believe that national Democrats won't seriously contest the state's electoral votes for many Presidential elections to come, as they should. That may not be welcome news for other states which may not carry the same sized Electoral Vote bat, but for the good people of Florida, it means the sun will shine bright on our place in the political world.

As if it was necessary, more evidence of Crist and his lack of base...

In a recent survey of Florida voters, Public Policy Polling asked Florida voters to name their most favorite and least favorite Governor. 

Not shockingly, Jeb Bush (42% chose favorite, 33% chose least favorite) led both categories.  In addition to being one of Florida's most polarizing politicians in generations, he is also the most recent and memorable.   There are twice as many voters in Florida today as when the fellow who came in second, Bob Graham (23% chose favorite, 15% least favorite), served as Governor.   

The man in fourth (Bob Martinez finished last, with 5%)?  Charlie Crist.

The fact that a mere 9% chose Crist isn't on its face all that newsworthy.  As I've mentioned before, he is not the kind of leader who creates a natural fan base, and thus, will never do well in these kinds of surveys.   However, this survey once again shows that the GOP base is done with him.

Not only do 3 times as many GOP voters (12% to 4%) chose Graham as their favorite Governor, as compared to Crist, but Crist finishes in a statistical tie with Lawton Chiles as Republican voters' choice for least Governor. 

Democrats don't love him either, where he finishes fourth in the "favorite" rankings, behind Graham, Chiles and distant third, Jeb Bush.  That's right, even Democrats like Jeb better than Crist, at least when it comes to their most favorite Governor.

In fact, survey wide, only Bob Martinez fares worse across the board than Crist.  This probably has more to do with the fact that Martinez's term was a mere blip in a twenty eight year period dominated by three heavyweight personalities: Graham, Chiles and Bush.

What does all this mean?  Not much, other than more evidence that Crist's climb is really uphill in his primary.

The ratings:

Bush:  42 (Fav):33 (Least Fav)

Graham:  23:15

Chiles:  21:16

Crist:  9:17

Martinez:  5:19

Crist gets back to his roots

For most of the last year, Crist has ineffectually tried to define himself as the real conservative in his primary against Rubio.  Clearly, it is a strategy that is going no where.  Seemingly, each new poll that comes out shows Rubio climbing and the only thing dropping like a rock in Cristworld are his own numbers.

But just in the last few weeks, he appears to be changing course, first deciding to appear with President Obama in Tampa, then staking out a more moderate terrain with his budget, then today, getting back to the tone that defined his first few years as Governor, with comments like this: 

While there is great virtue in being true to your principles, conviction must be tempered with practicality and pragmatism. Taken to an extreme, conviction becomes inflexible – even destructive. Extreme views rarely solve problems and frequently create them. Look around the globe. Can’t we agree our world would be better with less overheated rhetoric and more common sense?

The reality is Crist is never going to be able to change the hearts and minds of the most conservative elements of the GOP because his problems run far deeper than just one Presidential man-hug. 

From embracing the science of climate change to taking the principled stand in 2008 that long lines should never stand as a detriment to a citizen's right to vote, Crist has found himself at odds with his own party---hence my comments a few months back about him lacking a real base.  I might have a better chance of convincing some conservatives of my bona fides than Crist.

But in this political environment, Crist has one way to get his mojo back, and admittedly, its a hail mary:  stand up as a leader.  With people of all colors frustrated with Washington, Crist has a narrow 60 day window to wrestle some common sense into Tallahassee.  If he succeeds (and people give him credit for it), he's got a shot.  If not, he's done.  It is just that simple, which is why a few weeks back, I suggested that he simply suspend campaigning and focus on running the state, which is the only way he is going to change minds.

It may not carry him to victory, but clearly the road he was on was leading him into the desert.  So why not get back to what he knows best?

Clearly he is taking a step in a new (or really old) direction...or maybe he's two steps ahead of us and is just laying the road work to run as an independent....

(I doubt it)

Election Day is still eight months away.

Last week, a former co-worker and political commentator extraordinaire, Joy-Ann Reid penned an interesting opinion piece about the state of the top two Democratic campaigns, Alex Sink and Kendrick Meek.

In her op-ed, Reid addresses some of the frustration among Democrats about the pace of the campaigns. I hear it too, nearly everywhere I go, to which I have one basic response:  Relax.

The 2008 election, particularly for Democrats, was a non-stop event.  The sheer amount of advertising, as well as staff, created an all-consuming political environment.  But that isn't how campaigns actually work, especially in non-Presidential elections.

So to my Democratic friends, I would remind them of two things:

1.  Despite the attention paid to the Presidential campaigns, the operation in Florida didn't start until late June/early July.  Both McCain and Obama campaigns had tiny staffs in May, but neither campaign got going in earnest until well into the summer.   Heck, now President Obama didn't make his first real general election visit to Florida until July 31st.  It is only February.

2.  In the words of my friend Paul Tewes, "polls are shit."   Sure, Sink is trailing McCollum, but then again, a lot more folks know who he is.  But more importantly, the election isn't for eight months.  Both parties should remember that as late as May 1, 2008, McCain held an average lead of 12 points over Obama in Florida. 

For Democrats, Sink and Meek have plenty of time to define themselves to Floridians, assuming they have the money to do so.  This is why the uncontested party nominees (McCollum, Sink and Meek) are focusing on really the only thing they should be doing:  raising money, and all three are doing that well.  From an activist stand point, this might not be as exciting as the kind of hand to hand combat that defines the latter months of a campaign, but without the resources, they wouldn't have a shot in a state that is as big and expensive as Florida.

Want to run for Congress? Move to Central Florida.

With the census about to start in earnest, I wanted to take a look at the likely winners and losers from the next reapportionment and redistricting.  I am not even going to try to predict how that 2012 process will benefit the parties or individual members.  Certainly as anyone who has lived through one redistricting session (I did in 2002) can attest, there is very little you can predict once pen goes to paper.

However, I do believe that by tracking the 2000 census data through the most recent census population projections from last year, there are some interesting nuggets about how the map will evolve.

The number one takeaway, assuming that Florida gains only one new Congressional seat:  the new Congressional seat will likely fall somewhere between Orlando and the eastern part of the Tampa media market.  And in the unlikely scenario that Florida gets two, the Tampa and Orlando media markets will likely each be the beneficiaries of one.

But that's only the beginning.

Since 2000, Florida has experienced subtle demographic shifts.  For example, the 2000 census showed that just under 54% of all Floridians lived in one of the state's seven 'urban' counties, counties with a population of more than 750,000 (Broward, Dade, Duval, Hillsborough, Palm Beach, Pinellas, Orange).  Today, that number is 51.7%.  The shift, not surprisingly, is almost exclusively into the midsize (typically suburban/ ) counties. 

Except, unlike the rest of the country, it hasn't been due to urban flight.  For example, the three counties who have dropped the most in terms of their share of statewide population:  Dade, Broward and Pinellas all share in common one thing:  they are at or nearly at maximum density due to geographic constraints.

On the flip side, the counties that are the fastest gaining in terms of their share of statewide population:  Lee (though the failed housing market there is now leading to some retreat in numbers), Orange, Osceola, St. Lucie and Lake all share a similar trait---lots of room to grow.

So what does all this mean?

In general, shockingly little all in all.  Most parts of the state will see very little change in terms of their total representation, though that doesn't mean that everything will be the same.

First, the state house map will show the most obvious shifts.  If counties were apportioned seats strictly based on population (which we know they are not), Dade, Broward and Pinellas would likely each lose an entire seat in the house. 

On the flipside, Orlando/Osceola would gain another (and it would likely be majority Hispanic), and SW Florida would receive another, likely based in Lee County.   The lost Pinellas seat would be absorbed within the media market, but would end up far further north and east, potentially even benefiting the Villages.

In total, the Miami media market would be down two, and the Orlando media market would be up two.  Southwest Florida gains one, stealing some from the eastern side of the state.

In the State Senate, SE Florida will likely watch the power centers of a couple of their districts shift north and west, as Orlando and SW Florida grab bigger chunks of the map. 

That being said, within media markets and even counties, there are subtle shifts that will likely lead to some interesting cartography. But in the interest of space, I'll take those on at a later date.

Agree?  Disagree?  As always, let me know.

Dante Revisited: The Nine Circles of Florida Road Warrior Hell

It has been a busy couple months in the old Toyota (so old, it is pre-recall era), which makes it an opportune time to have a little fun with the blog. 

So here goes, Dante's Inferno revisited:  what the nine circles of politico hell would look like if hell was Florida's highways, destinations and airports.  As I've visited all 67 counties in the last couple years, most many times, I feel like I am pretty well suited to make these calls. 

Sometime in the near future, I'll hit the various spheres of Florida's road warrior Paradisio.  Hint:  Tampa Airport.

I hope my fellow political road warriors will weigh in with their thoughts.

1.   Political Conferences at Disney and other "Destination" resorts.   Growing up most of my life in Florida, I am a fan of Disney.  Nikole and I have been many times and love the place.  However, going there for a business is almost unfair.  You know you want to have fun and get in the Disney spirit, but you have to put on a suit and tie and play the other role, while everyone else around you is essentially care-free.   And if you aren't at Disney, Murphy's Law dictates that your political conference will probably be some place like the Fountainbleau in Miami, where you get to try to hold meetings while watching the surf.

2. Tallahassee.  I live here and it is a great place.   However, getting to and from this place is often just a tiny bit easier than getting to and from Bismarck, ND (trust me, I know this one).  As they say, Tallahassee is just one stop from the world, except that one stop is Atlanta airport (a place Dante definitely dreamed about in writing Inferno), which is the wrong way if you are headed anywhere south.  Sure, you can fly direct from Ft. Myers to Germany, which is probably the same connection you will make if you try to get from Ft. Myers to Tallahassee. Oh, and for the pleasure of one-stoping to the world, you will pay about 4 times what it costs if you lived in say, Tampa. 

3. Following a school bus on U.S. 1 in the Keys (nominated by Tom Eldon).  Going to the Keys for work is a perk of living in Florida, except getting to the Keys tends to take some work, and sometimes that work means following a school bus down Overseas Highway.  As Tom Eldon of Schroth, Eldon and Associates suggests, if this happens to you, pull off the road and go fishing for two hours, and by then, the chances are good that you won't catch the bus before you get to Key West.  Why isn't this further down the list, you might ask?  Well, because its the Keys and how bad could it be?

4. Orlando International Airport.  In the Pantheon of big airports, MCO is a pretty good one.  Well laid out, clean and easy to get around (just avoid the $5 a gallon gas station nearby).  Except when you go through security and you are in a hurry.  One day, TSA will find a special method of clearing all those massive tourist shopping bags, but until then, pull up a chair because you will be there for a while.

5. I-10.  I've probably driven I-10 at least 400-500 times in my political career.  As an interstate, it is uniquely special.  On a road where driving 70mph could be considered cruel and unusual punishment, expect to find about 75 state troopers every mile.   How many times have you been on I-10, say passing Madison going towards Jacksonville, then feel like you drive for 2-3 days, only to realize you are just getting to Live Oak?  You know who has never driven I-10?  Cell phone companies.

6. US 19 from St. Pete to Weekee Wachee.  I like Pinellas County a whole lot.  I am a big fan of St. Petersburg and Pinellas County is without a doubt home to the best grouper sandwich in Florida (Woody's).  I've spent so much time there in the last four years that they might make me start paying taxes.  In fact, it is one of the few places in Florida that I could see living in one day---as long as I could avoid US 19.  US 19 is essentially the spine of Pinellas County, connecting coastal Pasco and Hernando counties with St. Petersburg along a highway that includes 1750 traffic lights, 37 Hooters and more chain restaurants per mile than any place else in Florida, except maybe US 192. 

7. I-4.  Tampa to Orlando.  I-4 is Florida's Box of Chocolates, you never know what you are going to get.  Sometimes you leave downtown Orlando at 10:00 AM and find yourself in downtown Tampa a few minutes after 11.  Sometimes you leave downtown Orlando at 10:00 AM and find yourself in downtown Tampa a few minutes after 11---a week or two later.   On behalf of everyone who has spent most of an afternoon in a rain storm on I-4, thank you President Obama for high speed rail. 

8. I-95 from Ft. Lauderdale to Miami.  For most of the length of I-95, the driving is pleasurable, as long as your idea of pleasurable is bump drafting at Daytona.  But once you get to Ft. Lauderdale, it turns into a real adventure.  As one nominator said about the stretch, "it is seven lanes of hell, complete with thousands of drivers who apparently have made peace with God."  Hint:  pay the toll to use the express lanes in Dade County.  At least you will have orange cones to protect you from the melee.

9. The Miami International Airport.   Flying into Miami isn't all that bad, assuming you can figure out how to get to the expressway from the sand lot behind the abandoned industrial complex--also known as rental car row.  Leaving Miami on a regional jet?  Good luck.  First you have to navigate the parking lot known as Dolphin Expressway just to get there, then find your rental car return location, ride the bus to the airport, stand in line for TSA, walk halfway around the world to your gate, get on a bus to ride well out into the tarmac, get off bus and hope it isn't raining, then board your plane. 

Near misses:  Love/Hate relationship with Panera Bread, Continental's prop planes, Atlanta International Airport, the Sawgrass Mills Mall. 

Welcome back, Mr. President

In anticipation of President Obama and Vice President Biden's trip next week, now seems like as good a time as any to look at some fun political facts about Florida, Florida, Florida.

In the nation's current political alignment, especially for the GOP, Florida is a real make or break state.  There are very few scenarios where the GOP could win the White House without Florida's 27 (soon to be 28 or 29). As a result, Florida's electoral votes essentially assure a Democratic win. 

As I used to tell our young staff in 2008, it was win and you're in.

History tends to prove this point. 

Since 1928, Florida has only landed on the wrong side of two Presidential elections:  1960 and 1992 (the other big battleground, Ohio, has also been wrong twice:  1944 and 1960).  In both cases, Florida narrowly went for the GOP, while national Democrats won the ultimate prize. 

In fact, you have to go back to 1924 and the re-election of President Calvin Coolidge to find the last time that a Republican won the White House without an assist from the Sunshine State.

So if Florida is the epicenter of Presidential politics, what is the epicenter of Florida?  Simple:  Tampa, the place where the President will pay a visit on Thursday.

According to the Division of Elections, since 1948, the winner of Hillsborough County has won Florida all but one time (1960---that year, it voted for Kennedy, but Nixon won the state).

And since 1992 (the point where POTUS elections in FL became reliably competitive), the Tampa media market as a whole has selected the winner.

Year                Winner                 Tampa Market                 Statewide

92                   Bush                             +4%                            +2%

96                   Clinton                          +4%                            +6%

00                   Bush                             +2%                             Tie

04                   Bush                             +7%                             +5%

08                   Obama                          +0.5%                          +2.5% 

Certainly in 2008, the importance of the market wasn't lost on either the Obama or McCain campaigns.  We stuck our campaign state headquarters right smack in the heart of the market and made St. Petersburg the first public Florida stop of then Senator Obama's general election effort.  In fact, McCain and Obama both made four visits (and even more 'stops') to the market between August and Election Day, and sent their ticket-mate's there three times each. 

So what is it about this market?    

First, in terms of vote share, no market is bigger in Florida.  Nearly a quarter of all votes cast in a Presidential election will come from the Tampa market.  When you add the 20% that comes from the Orlando market, the importance of the I-4 corridor becomes obvious.

Secondly, I-75.  Migration to Florida, especially in the late 20th century tended to follow interstates, with the more liberal, northeastern voters migrating into southeast Florida and Midwestern voters ending up on the west coast.  As a result, while the politics of Broward look a lot like the politics of New York and Boston, the politics of Tampa feel a lot more like the more centrist and competitive politics of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin.  If you don't believe me, count the Bears and Packers fans at a Bucs game. 

Lastly, it is a little microcosm of Florida.  It has some rural ag, a growing Hispanic population (and an established Cuban population), large urban African-American centers, traditional white working class communities, and a whole lot of soccer moms.  To do well in this market, you have to have a message with wide appeal---the key ingredient to winning across the state.

So welcome back to the Tampa area, Mr. President.  Personally, I hope we will see you here lots more over the next three years.

Democrats in Florida- The Future is Bright

This is the first of many posts I am going to write about the state of the battlefield in Florida and the forward trajectory of the state's politics.

Recently, the Florida Democratic Party released the most recent voter registration numbers, which show despite all the media hand-wringing about the fortunes of Democrats across the country, that Democrats added about 40,000 more new voters in 2009 than Republicans. 

The Democrats now hold a seven point voter registration advantage over the GOP, for a raw advantage of nearly 800,000 voters.  This the largest advantage for Democrats since 1990. 

This alone is very good news for Democrats.

But the better news if you live on my side of the aisle:  There is no reason this trend should slow down any time soon.

First, the Democratic trends are most striking among younger voters (Dems hold a 16 point advantage among young voters) and among Hispanics (registering 3:1 Democratic).  In Dade County alone, between 2002-2008, the Democrats increased their voter registration advantage by more than 100,000 votes, largely on the back of changing Hispanic political behavior.

Since the last redistricting, the Democratic advantage has grown by some 500,000.  And the Democratic advantage is growing in places where the bulk of people live.

For example, as of the book closing in October 2008 (I have not seen the county by county for 2009 yet), the 25 or so counties where the Democrats made the bulk of their gains comprised some 75% of the total two-party vote in Florida. 

And even more good news for Democrats, in those counties that are electorally "swing counties" (ie- voted for Crist and Sink, or Bush and Obama), the gains are truly remarkable.  In fact, the largest voter registration gain for the GOP in any swing county is in Pasco County, where they have added roughly 2500 more voters than the GOP over the last seven years.   On the flip side, Democratic registration gains in places like Orange (plus 67.000), Hillsborough (plus 30,000) and Pinellas (plus 30,000) are all significant. 

Further, these changes are threatening to move two major counties, Orange and Dade (remember Jeb won the county twice), out of the "swing" category and into "base" Democratic counties.

Add to this, we will go into 2010 with our strongest top to bottom statewide ticket in years. 

I am going to have much more on this subject in the near future, but needless to say, from my perspective, the long term futures market for Democrats is very bright in Florida.