Dear FL Dems: The Open Primary Idea is a Worthy One

Dear Florida Democrats:

I understand that the Florida Democratic Party is considering a rule change to allow unaffiliated (independent) voters to vote in Democratic primaries.

I’ve read a number of legitimate concerns about and opposition to this proposal from people whose views I do trust.  Those include concerns that NPA voters would dilute the voting power of the Democratic base, and that it would hurt the chances of progressives in primaries.  For one, I don't think the evidence shows these concerns to be rooted in the data, and moreover, I think there a number of other reasons why this proposal deserves consideration.  So with that, let me offer a number of reasons why I would encourage you to support this proposal.

1. We Can’t Win Without Independents

This is purely a math problem.  Under the current voter registration make-up of Florida, a Democrat in a statewide race would need to win about 60% of the unaffiliated vote to have a reasonable shot to win.   And Republicans hold a voter registration edge in nearly every battleground-type Congressional or Legislative race.  Outside of a handful of base communities, there is not a world where just “firing up the base” gets us to a win.  We need independents in the coalition.

I have a lot of opinions about how we got here, but those really aren’t relevant at this point.   The math is very clear:  we simply can not win without a strong share of the independent vote.

2.  Independent registration is growing - particularly among groups traditionally considered part of the Democratic base.

Among Black voters, the share of those who are registered Independent has risen from 17% to 22% in 5 years.  Among Hispanics, the independent share has risen from to 38% - and Independents now make up a plurality of Hispanic voters. 

And increasingly, younger voters are choosing to register without a political affiliation.

If we look at the voters who we have seen Democrats struggle with:  Black voters, Hispanic voters, and younger voters, for example, they are increasingly registering independent, which means that our traditional Democratic outreach around primaries isn’t reaching these voters.  In fact, our traditional Democratic outreach during primaries is talking to a smaller, and often older segment of the election each cycle.  If we want to win back pieces of this electorate that we have lost, why wouldn’t we encourage them to participate in our primaries – and force our candidates to have a longer conversation with them?

Moreover, if we want to win these voters over to our partisan corner, wouldn’t allowing them to have a say in our primaries be a good way to open the door to joining our party?

 3. Florida is one of the few states with a true closed primary system

Other than the rare instance where the only candidates in the race are from one party, and there are no write-in candidates, every partisan primary is closed to independents.  Only 9 other systems are as closed as we are when it comes to primaries.  The vast majority of states are open primary states, or at least allow their political parties to decide whether or not to allow unaffiliated voters to vote.  

While I do respect the concerns of Democrats about opening up the primary, if the parade of horribles predicted by some was actually likely to play out at the Florida ballot box, we’d see it play out in other states.  

4. We’ve had several open primaries without incident or interference from the other side.

In the 2020, 2022, and 2024 election cycles, there have been a total of 15 primaries where only Democrats qualified, meaning all voters (including Republicans) were able to vote in the primary.  While I wouldn’t dispute that in a race or two, the open primary gave a candidate an edge, I would be hard pressed to find a single one where the outcome would have definitely been different had only Democrats been allowed to vote.  In fact, a few of the most progressive members of the legislature were elected in open primaries.  

On the other hand, each of those races had higher vote totals than the races where only Democrats voted.  That is something we should all support. 

5.   Seriously, WTF do we have to lose?

What are we protecting by not opening our primaries?  Democrats have never had fewer members in the legislature, or a smaller share of the Congressional delegation.   While I have not counted it, I suspect we are also at, or near an all-time low when it comes to county commissioners as well.  It is not like we have some partisan hegemony to protect.

 But if we open the primaries, candidates who want to win are going to have to talk to more voters, will have to organize more broadly, and will have to learn to communicate to a broader segment of the electorate.  

And for me, that is the main point: If we are going to chip away at the deficit we find ourselves in as a party, we have to appeal to a broader segment of the electorate.  This isn’t a question of the ideological alignment of the party, rather it is one of simple math.

Moreover, the criticism of the party these days is that it is too insular, not open enough to change, not willing to accept new leaders into its fold, and not willing to be bold.  Giving the roughly 4 million unaffiliated voters in Florida a voice in our party does just that:  it opens a door to new leaders, it forces us to listen to a broader reach of voters, and it creates space for those voters to join our team.

Again, I genuinely respect the concerns of those who oppose this change.  But in this instance, I just disagree. I see no evidence in the Florida history or from other states that the concerns folks have about this have played out in real world experiments. 

And given the current state of the party, if now isn’t the time to try something different, then when? I appreciate Chair Fried bringing this propsoal forward, and I hope folks will support it. 

Thanks for hearing me out.

Steve Schale

(Just to remind folks, I do not work for the party, do not advise the party, have not worked for the party since 2009, and did not have a word of input into this proposal.  This is simply my opinion)